New expectations for Vietnam's economy in 2020

In just the first 20 days of the new year 2020, Vietnam has attracted over 5.33 billion USD of foreign investment , an increase of nearly 2.8 times over the same period in 2019. 

One of the pieces of information that should be mentioned first, perhaps is the fact that the International Trade Committee (INTA) of the European Parliament on January 21 voted to approve the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA). This is an important stepping stone, so that the European Parliament can officially adopt the EVFTA, bringing significant benefits to the socio-economy on both sides. especially Vietnam.

Another piece of information is that in just the first 20 days of the new year 2020, Vietnam has attracted over 5.33 billion USD of foreign investment, an increase of nearly 2.8 times over the same period in 2019. Not to mention, there is also official information that Vietnam has reached a record trade surplus in 2019, which is 11.1 billion USD, instead of nearly 10 billion USD compared to the previous estimate.

Other macroeconomic information, which may be at this time compared to the same period last year, is a decline, for example, exports decreased by 14.3%, estimated at 19 billion USD; industrial production decreased by 5.5%; registration of new business establishments decreased by 17.9%..., but this is understandable and has also become a practice for the first months of the year, depending on the time of the Lunar New Year holiday.

This year, the Lunar New Year falls in January, even in January 2020 alone, there were two Tet holidays, and last year, Tet fell in February. Therefore, comparing with the same period is lame and cannot confirm the trend of the economy. It is not until the end of the first quarter of 2020 that the trend of the economy will be clearly shown.

However, "the sun is still shining in Vietnam", when Forbes, the World Bank, and ADB have all made positive forecasts for Vietnam's economy in 2020, with a fast growth rate. Positive information at the beginning of the new spring is also expected to bring new vitality to Vietnam's economy in 2020. These are the bases for us to have confidence that the economy will continue the good growth momentum of the old year 2019.

However, in addition to the challenges and risks that have been pointed out, new difficulties are emerging. The latest and most obvious is that the Corona flu epidemic is spreading, so much so that the World Health Organization has had to raise the global risk assessment of this epidemic from "moderate" to "high".

If the epidemic breaks out more widely globally, and in Vietnam as well, the negative impacts on the global economy and Vietnam. Warwick McKibbin, a professor of economics at the Australian National University, estimates that the coronavirus epidemic could cause $120-160 billion in damage to the global economy, three to four times more than the SARS epidemic in 2003.

For Vietnam's economy, the effects on exports and tourism, at least to the vast market of China, will be quite severely affected. The stock market also fell quite sharply because of the Corona virus.

Those are just the initial effects, if the epidemic spreads, the negative impact will be even heavier. However, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc affirmed, "accepting economic losses to protect people's health". Currently, all measures to proactively prevent the epidemic have also been implemented. These are important and necessary moves to not only ensure the health of the people, but also how to minimize the negative impacts on the economy.

The initiative is extremely necessary. For many years, we have always witnessed such initiative in the administration of the Government in the face of risks and disadvantages, in the face of unpredictable fluctuations of the global economy. For example, when oil prices fall low or rise, Vietnam has taken measures to respond. When the US-China trade war breaks out, we also prepare appropriate operating scenarios. As trade protectionism spreads, Vietnam is also preparing policy adjustments...

Along with that, it is determined not to "sleep on the laurels", not to be negligent, but to always drastically implement solutions to promote economic growth, improving the investment and business environment, reforming institutions, renewing growth models, etc. This is the best way for Vietnam's economy to stand firm against the uncertainties and risks of the global economy. including the impacts of the Corona epidemic. These factors further strengthen confidence in the development potential of Vietnam's economy in 2020.